First Debate

Note: This is identical to the post on Facebook.  If you missed that, you are not my facebook friend.  Stop crying, it'll be OK. 

 

My take on the debate last night:

Jim Lehrer-

Lots of people are taking shots at Jim Lehrer.  Some is warranted, others are not.  Yes the job of a moderator is to use control, and in that aspect, Lehrer didn’t achieve his goal.  It would have been one of the few times where a giant gong would have been nice.  A moderator that is doing that job, with the public as the judge (and not a three judge panel, where points could be deducted) has no real mechanism to stop someone from talking over everyone else.  What was he going to do?  Stand up, and hit someone?  No.  Especially since this was an open discussion forum, and especially since there is only so much he can do to physically stop someone from talking, I can’t be too hard on him.  I would have stood up, and pulled out an air-horn, but I’m not a well respected journalist that has moderated more presidential debates than anyone living today. 

It was also sad that the entire last section of the night was scrapped.  That was a failure of the debate.  You don’t win kudos with me, for talking talking talking…  You win kudos and have a chance to change my mind when you pose an argument and/or answer the question that was asked of you.  If you can do that in a too the point way, and don’t have to ramble on forever to kind of come up with an answer that skirts or skims the question asked….then that’s what I want.  Not having the ability to answer clearly and in under 2-3 minutes means you can’t really control your explanation. (NOTE: That last rule doesn’t apply if you are asked ANYTHING about quantum mechanics.)

Mitt Romney:

Romney has been said by many to have won the debate.  I agree in the sense that more people that have not made up their minds already would be more persuaded by his arguments than Obama’s.  Mitt was much more on the ball with numbers, and took a more aggressive approach in the debate.  I figured he would.  Any candidate that is fighting for numbers will be more bold, because if they aren’t, then they have no chance to pull in voters.  The underdog always has to act stronger.* 

*For those that will cite the constant statistical tie as evidence that he isn’t an underdog, then you don’t understand statistical ties or the electoral college.  I didn’t take first place in Fantasy Election ’08 by accident.  Learn how stuff works.

I was not happy that Romney got away with a lot of the same lines that fact checkers have called him on (i.e. those 6 studies that support his tax plans being revenue neutral didn’t do that at all, as outlined study by study here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/27/wonkblogs-comprehensive-guide-to-the-debate-over-romneys-tax-plan/?print=1 ), and with his comments that have been in the news (i.e. 47%, emergency room care as healthcare).  I was not happy in the least that we’ve gotten to this point, and still he offers no real details on his plans (“I’ll close loopholes” isn’t a plan.  Which?  For whom? How much will that save?  Who will it effect?  The 6 studies were trying to debunk this one : http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/UploadedPDF/1001628-Base-Broadening-Tax-Reform.pdf )  With all that being said, if you consider the goal of the debate as convincing the undecided voters, Romney won hands down.  It’ll take about 2 days, and more accurate numbers on Monday/Tuesday to see what the margins look like in the swings.** 

** When I say swings, I’m referring to NV, CO, FL, IA, WI, OH, PA, NH, VA & N.C.   If you don’t know about the GOP’s new issues with the swings NV, CO, FL, N.C., and VA, hit this link.  For the GOP, it may blunt any gains in those areas, not on a voter by voter basis, but in new registers. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/#49250158  

Barack Obama:

I can’t say much about him, because he didn’t really show up.  Lol   What the hell?  Looking into the camera to talk to the people at home can be a good plan.  Engaging Romney would be a good plan.  He seemed to spend time looking down and engaging his podium.  There was no “bite”, which is a term I use when talking about debtors taking a piece out of their opponent.   The opportunities were there, certainly, but he seemed to not be engaged.  Even if you think (as I do) that his points were more factually true, that did no good because he stumbled all too often while offering those.  Speaking of those points, it still irks me that he uses the money saved coming out of 2 wars in his numbers, and that he hasn’t taken Simpson-Boyles more to heart.  I think re-election plays a big part of that, and I hope to see him doing more damage to the Debt in a 2^nd term. 

Back to the debate.  In those 90 minutes, I think he lost his footing, and it seemed to be because he had a lapse of confidence.  We see that in debates, even this year (Perry’s 3 departments..wait..2.. What’s the third?), but the time to NOT have that happen is the opening debate (of 3 total) which was focused on Domestic issues.  The economy is always the most important issue, and so of the three that he could have had a “crisis in confidence” in, this was the worst. (To see a crisis: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HgE5q2Umkw     To see a crisis with a punch line: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HgE5q2Umkw )

I have lots of people that I’m friends with here, that are waiting to see if I’ll just cover up his mistakes, and see if I’ll admit that I think Romney had a win.  I’m not covering anything, because that’s not how I do business.  Romney won last night, and Obama was flustered and seemed like he was stepping on stage for the first time.  Whereas Romney loses points for a lack of facts, Obama lost more for his debate skills, which as I said at the beginning matters more to those undecided voters (but not to independents).   Romney :1 / Obama :0. 

Next Debates:

For those that will follow more, the next debate is with Rep. Ryan and V.P. Biden on October 11^th.  (Moderated by Martha Raddatz, 9 segments, 10 minutes each)

Then on Oct. 16^th, it’s to a presidential town hall debate in N.Y., on Domestic and Foreign Policy. (Moderated by Candy Crowley, town hall style, with audience members asking questions)

The final debate is in Florida in the 22^nd, just on Foreign Policy. (Bob Schieffer moderates, same debate format as the first, 6 segments, 15 minutes each.)